Jan 23, 2017

Final Predictions: 2016


It's that time of year y'all: Oscar Nominations 2017! Happy to say that I've seen a lion's share of these films and performances; I'll keep my opinions to my self for the time being, but here's my stab at the names and films I'm predicting will be called out in just a few short hours...plus some quick thoughts on the leading categories. Tune in tomorrow for a postmortem - and as per most other years, I plan to have 1 alcoholic beverage per false prediction.*



*Best Picture not included as that bears the danger of making a large number of mistakes ;)

SIDE NOTE: I swear the rest of 1950 is coming soon. I've watched the remaining nominees and I just need a bit of time to digest all of them, to process my thoughts. And there are lots of thoughts indeed. 

BEST PICTURE
Arrival
Hell or High Water
Hidden Figures
La La Land
Lion
Manchester by the Sea
Moonlight
Silence
Fences
Hacksaw Ridge

BEST DIRECTOR
Damien Chazelle, La La Land
Barry Jenkins, Moonlight
Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea
Martin Scorsese, Silence
Denis Villeneuve, Arrival
Mel Gibson, Hacksaw Ridge

BEST ACTOR

Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea
Andrew Garfield, Silence
Ryan Gosling, La La Land
Viggo Mortensen, Captain Fantastic
Denzel Washington, Fences
Andrew Garfield, Hacksaw Ridge

QUICK THOUGHTS: I know Andrew Garfield has landed in all the major precursors via Hacksaw Ridge, and perhaps this is just my wishful thinking that there'll be some sort of surprise in an otherwise incredibly boring and predictable Best Actor race, but I'm going to go out on a whim here and say he gets in via Silence on the basis that that's the film that's most fresh on voter's minds. After all, Oscar hasn't straight-up matched with SAG and BAFTA in quite some time. BUT - I wouldn't bet on it.

BEST ACTRESS

Amy Adams, Arrival
Isabelle Huppert, Elle
Natalie Portman, Jackie
Emma Stone, La La Land
Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins
Ruth Negga, Loving

QUICK THOUGHTS: Goddamn this category! I thank the Oscar Gods for every year in which we are blessed with an embarrassment of riches for The Greatest Category of Them All. And this one's a doozy - with two locks and two sure-fire bets, you can make a compelling case for either Annette, Emily, and Isabelle. But what if Ruth gets in? Or what if two of the four get in in place of either Amy or Meryl? THE DRAMA! As of this moment, I'll go with Isabelle, but I'd be pretty happy if I were wrong, if only for that added excitement.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Mahershala Ali, Moonlight
Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water
Hugh Grant, Florence Foster Jenkins
Dev Patel, Lion
Aaron Taylor-Johnson, Nocturnal Animals
Lucas Hedges, Manchester by the Sea
Michael Shannon, Nocturnal Animals

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Viola Davis, Fences
Naomie Harris, Moonlight
Nicole Kidman, Lion
Octavia Spencer, Hidden Figures
Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea