January 22, 2018

Final Predictions: 2017



It's Oscar Nominations 2018 y'all!


I've seen most of the films in contention this season (the biggest exceptions being Dunkirk and Get Out), and must say: it's been an odd year. Odd in the sense that I'm not genuinely passionate about any specific film or performance. I liked most of them just fine, but none have really stirred me. Thus, I have been expecting more of a battle in most of the acting categories, and to have seen awards bodies collectively crown the "chosen ones" (that is: Oldman, McDormand, Rockwell, and Janney) is rather disappointing. Hopefully BAFTA factors in a wrench somewhere a la Tilda Swinton or Marion Cotillard in 2007, but as it stands, it would seem that these four are our acting wins come March. What are some of your faves this year?

In any case, the nominations are almost always more suspenseful and exciting for me than the actual ceremony itself. So here're some predictions for the top six categories. Postmortem to come tomorrow.

Best Picture
Call Me by Your Name
Dunkirk
Get Out
Lady Bird
The Florida Project
The Post
The Shape of Water
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Phantom Thread
Darkest Hour

Best Director
Guillermo Del Toro, The Shape of Water
Greta Gerwig, Lady Bird
Martin McDonagh, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk
Steven Spielberg, The Post
Paul Thomas Anderson, Phantom Thread
Jordan Peele, Get Out

Best Actor

Timothée Chalamet, Call Me by Your Name
Daniel Day-Lewis, Phantom Thread
James Franco, The Disaster Artist
Daniel Kaluuya, Get Out
Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour
Denzel Washington, Roman J. Israel, Esq.

Best Actress

Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water
Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Margot Robbie, I, Tonya
Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird
Meryl Streep, The Post

Best Supporting Actor

Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project
Woody Harrelson, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Richard Jenkins, The Shape of Water
Christopher Plummer, All the Money in the World
Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Best Supporting Actress

Mary J. Blige, Mudbound
Hong Chau, Downsizing
Holly Hunter, The Big Sick
Allison Janney, I, Tonya
Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird
Lesley Manville, Phantom Thread
Octavia Spencer, The Shape of Water

3 comments:

  1. The only concern I have about the noms this year is why Franco, who was expected to be nominated, was excluded. If it's because his performance was considered sub-par to an okay Washington in the very sub-par 'Roman J. Israel' that's one thing. If it's because of the recent allegations against him, that's something else. I'm no fan of Franco by any means, but excluding people because of allegations about their personal lives, proven or in this case unproven, takes us back to the blacklist of the 1950s, when suspected communists were denied work, careers and/or recognition.

    Removing Kevin Spacey from a soon to be released film was as economic as it was moral. Film is a 'business' first and his presence would most likely have hurt the box office. But the Oscars are supposedly about artistic merit, not the morality or personal ethics of the contenders. I detest the behaviors of Woody Allen and Roman Polanski, both of whom have made some great films and deservedly won Oscars. Does that mean the Academy should now rescind Oscars from deserving past winners, too? If so, they're going to have to track down an awful lot of old statuettes.

    Professionals can refuse to do work with these people, which is their right, but refusing to allow them to work at all or receive recognition for artistic achievement is going back to McCarthyism, which destroyed careers and lives. The Academy participated in such blacklisting back then, Dalton Trumbo being the most obvious example. When they corrected that misjudgment in 1991, he was long dead for all the good it did him.

    My disdain for any of the men mentioned above can be expressed by not buying a ticket. The Academy does not have to express it for me by denying the very reason for which it supposedly exists - to recognize 'Artistic' merit ... not lifestyle merit. Those are two different things.

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    1. I agree with your points, but it's a tough call. For starters, the allegations really didn't blow up until two days before voting ended - we can deduce that perhaps said allegations did lead to a snub, but we'll never know the voting ratios of the last two days versus the prior period. That said, he did win the Globe and he did get the SAG nod, so it's suggestive that perhaps the allegations caused the snub. My own opinion is that I thought Franco was just fine in The Disaster Artist, though I don't believe it was nomination worthy.

      Same goes for Christopher Plummer's work in All the Money in the World. I haven't seen the film yet, and while there've been lots of praise for Plummer's performance, it does feel like a "statement" nomination given the Spacey controversy.

      I'd be curious to see if Casey Affleck does come back to present Best Actress.

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  2. I love Christopher Plummer and am always glad to see him nominated but, having not seen his latest performance, I must say it does to seem to smack of corrective Academy PR. If Affleck is not invited back to present Best Actress, as is Academy tradition, that will be suspect.

    I'm 100% supportive of the stand FINALLY being taken against the 'casting couch' mentality and the abusive, degrading treatment of women in the film industry (and, in fact, in our culture at large). It's long, long, long overdue. I just don't believe that a revered award for artistic achievement and the formal traditions accompanying it is the proper avenue to express it.

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