The day is nearly upon us! The nominations for the 91st Academy Awards will be announced bright and early tomorrow morning, and as per usual, I've thrown out my predictions for the top six categories after the jump.
Nomination day comes as the Academy tries to persevere through one of the more trying years in recent AMPAS history. In just six months, our boy Oscar has dealt with PR controversies ranging from the Best Popular Film debacle, the Kevin Hart hosting fiasco, in addition to SAG-AFTRA accusing the Academy of preventing actors from presenting on other award shows.
The road ahead almost certainly seems opportune for more criticism: will the ceremony's host-less format go swimmingly? Will this year's broadcast be the fifth consecutive year of declining ratings? Will they embrace Green Book and Bohemian Rhapsody, thereby opening themselves up to the fury of Film Twitter?
We'll find out soon enough. I for one am always thrilled about nomination day, often times more so than the actual ceremony itself, as it typically presents a handful of big surprises in the major categories. So let's see what awaits us, and, as always, I'll be whipping up a post-mortem tomorrow.
Best Picture
Black Panther
BlacKkKlansman
Bohemian Rhapsody
The Favourite
Green Book
Roma
A Star is Born
Vice
Best Director
Alfonso Cuaron, Roma
Yorgos Lanthimos, The Favourite
Spike Lee, BlacKkKlansman
Best Actor
Christian Bale, Vice
Bradley Cooper, A Star is Born
Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody
Viggo Mortensen, Green Book
Quick thought: Even as he has missed out on nominations from the Globes, SAG and BAFTA, and even as I'm not entirely sure of his chances on getting in tomorrow morning, I'm going to stick with Ethan Hawke for the last spot by virtue of his strong showing with critics prizes.
Best Actress
Glenn Close, The Wife
Olivia Colman, The Favourite
Lady Gaga, A Star is Born
Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Quick thought: I'm going to go with Davis over the Emily Blunt in Mary Poppins Returns and Yalitza Aparcio in Roma, primarily because I feel like the more diversified voting bloc within the Academy love, respect, and will push for Davis. I don't know that Blunt's work in Mary Poppins Returns would inspire enough number one votes in their preferential voting system; I don't think (but would be pleasantly surprised if) Aparcio had enough support here. However, my heart wants Kidman in Destroyer.
Best Supporting Actor
Mahershala Ali, Green Book
Adam Driver, BlacKkKlansman
Sam Elliott, A Star is Born
Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Quick Thought: None to be had. Least favorite category. The fact that it's seemingly swaying towards Ali over the likes of Elliott and Grant is...unfortunate
Best Supporting Actress
Amy Adams, Vice
Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk
Emma Stone, The Favourite
Rachel Weisz, The Favourite
Quick Thought: I'll go with Robbie purely on the basis of her SAG/BAFTA one-two punch, but I know that the film isn't exactly making the biggest splash. Blunt could very well (and fraudulently so) get in for A Quiet Place. My heart is pushing for Claire Foy in First Man.
I like your choices. I'd want both Nicole Kidman and Julia Roberts in the BA category because their work in their respective films is better than some of the odds-on-favs and I think Ethan Hawke deserves to win, much more get nominated. That said, it's a weird year due to Oscar's confusion on how to define itself in the 21st century. Best Picture noms going to 10 a few years back; Best 'Most Popular Film' come and gone already; Oscar host comings and goings .... the Academy is in a full-on identity crisis and no one seems to be sailing the ship. It's difficult to figure out what this organization wants itself to be as it goes forward.
ReplyDeleteI've not seen Ben is Back, and admittedly am only tepidly curious as the film simply doesn't interest me. Granted, I've heard good things about Roberts, so might need to make the time for it.
DeleteIt's unfortunate that AMPAS feels the need to make itself "relevant," as I'm sure many who don't religiously follow the Oscars see it as a guide to film excellence (I've plenty of friends and relatives who are prompted to watch nominated films after the fact, versus, say, complaining that Black Panther or some other "popular" movie didn't win Best Picture). It's sad and obviously kind of eating the organization up from the inside to have to balance out this "art vs. commerce" rubbish, as the fact of the matter is, they've been around for 90+ years, and will always exist as the gold standard to many.