Nov 14, 2014

Predictions: 87th Academy Awards


I can hardly believe that it's that time of year again...time flies by quick! There are officially 100 days left until the 87th Academy Awards, and once again I put it upon myself to throw out my yearly predictions. I used to do this a few years ago but stopped for some odd reason, so here goes!



BEST PICTURE
Birdman
Boyhood
Foxcatcher
Gone Girl
The Imitation Game
Inherent Vice
Interstellar
Selma
Unbroken
Whiplash

Look, I don't know. These are my best guesses. Maybe there'll eventually be 9 nominees, but I don't know and I don't really care. At this point in time I'm thinking that Picture will realistically come down to Boyhood, Birdman, and The Imitation Game

BEST DIRECTOR

Alejandro González Iñárritu, Birdman
Ava DuVernay, Selma
Richard Linklater, Boyhood
Bennett Miller, Foxcatcher
Morten Tyldum, The Imitation Game

Best Director is not my forte whatsoever, so I'm not even going to try and guess who'll win. In terms of nominations, I chose Linklater and Inarritu because duh and I chose Miller because of that Cannes win of his. I was going to choose Christopher Nolan because I thought he'd have to be recognized by the Academy at some point, but then Selma happened so now I'm thinking they won't be able to resist giving a spot to a woman of color with an acclaimed film. Finally, I chose Tyldum because I've a hunch that The Imitation Game will hit big with voters. Angelina Jolie could be a possibility as well for Unbroken, depending on how well that one is received, in which case we could have two(!!) ladies for Best Director, another opportunity that would be too good to resist.

BEST ACTOR

Steve Carell, Foxcatcher
Benedict Cumberbatch, The Imitation Game
Michael Keaton, Birdman
David Oyelowo, Selma
Eddie Redmayne, The Theory of Everything

As it stands, it's looking to me like Michael Keaton is in a nice position for the win, what with his comeback narrative and acclaimed film and all. But from what I've read on the 'net, it's also looking like Cumberbatch and Redmayne are nipping at his heels--Stephen Hawking telling people he thought he was watching "himself" in The Theory of Everything and Cumberbatch running around telling several publications about how mad he is about Alan Turing's treatment (to put in his own words..."it makes me really angry. It makes me very angry.")--seems to me like the Brits are working the campaign circuits pretty hard, making this an extra interesting race. If I had to choose a close competitor for #2, my guess is that the edge goes to Cumberbatch, as his film is likely Harvey Weinstein's one and only awards horse this season. So if Weinstein pours his all into The Imitation Game, it's going to be a showdown between the comeback kid and the gay guy. Sound familiar?...hmm. In any case, with these three and Steve Carell (whose own prospects I feel are getting weaker and weaker every passing week), that leaves one last spot up for grabs. A week ago I'd have given it to Oscar Isaac for A Most Violent Year or Jack O'Connell for Unbroken, but with the splash Selma has made, I suppose I'll have to go with David Oyelowo's Martin Luther King Jr. (because seriously, how could the Academy possibly deny MLK?) Other candidates are Bradley Cooper for American Sniper, Timothy Spall for Mr. Turner. Two male performances that I've seen and really quite enjoyed are Jake Gyllenhaal for Nightcrawler (fantastic!) and Matthew McConaughey for Interstellar, but I don't think it's happening for either of them this year. Regardless, it's another damn dirty rich field of Best Actor contenders, though kind of annoying to me what with all the f*ckin biopics (where are the original stories?!). An embarrassment of riches really, especially when you consider....

BEST ACTRESS


Felicity Jones, The Theory of Everything
Julianne Moore, Still Alice
Rosamund Pike, Gone Girl
Reese Witherspoon, Wild
Shailene Woodley, The Fault in Our Stars

Good God what a hopeless piece of crap field Best Actress is this year >:( Seriously. Not since 2009 has the field been this desolate, and even then there were more female starring vehicles as viable contenders than there are this year, where you have potential nominees like Jones and Pike sharing their films with their male co-stars. May we all get on our knees and thank the Oscar Gods above for gifting us with Julianne Moore, who came swooping into the race after Still Alice debuted at TIFF in September (and whose Oscar chances I briefly speculated for a minute back in July, if you don't mind me tooting my horn) to offer this category a red-haired ray of light. I declared it back when Still Alice got picked up by Sony Pictures Classics and I'll declare it again here: it's pretty much a done deal folks. You've got Maria Shriver as executive producer (liberals!), you've got a movie tackling a disease that plagues many families across the nation (relevance!), you've got one of the film's directors who has late stage ALS (perfectly timed relevance!), and you've got a picture that's making audiences cry starring an adored and "overdue" American actress who has had an amazing year (Cannes win, Mockingjay). Amy Adams eat your heart out, because it would take some sort of freak accident for Moore to lose. Outside of the Jones/Moore/Pike/Witherspoon foursome, I have no clue who could nab the fifth spot. Perhaps Adams, but I've read enough intel on Big Eyes to believe that it'll be a bust. (Plus: she's no Meryl Streep--one could argue that 4 of her 5 nominations have come from her being swept in via love for her respective ensemble casts, and that with the exception of Junebug she has yet to pull through for a nomination in spite of a questionable film or on her name alone). There's also Jennifer Aniston fighting her way towards a nomination for Cake, which I'm not buying at the moment but is totally possible, what with her being a beloved Hollywood staple for so long...it could very well be a nice recognition nomination. There's Emily Blunt in Into the Woods and Hilary Swank in The Homesman, but I'm not buying those films' chances either, even if Swank is currently campaigning her ass off at the moment. There is also Marion Cotillard for Two Days, One Night...I want it to happen more so than I actually believe it could happen, but you never know--if ever there's a time for a foreign performance to slide in it would be during an especially weak year. There's Anne Dorval for Mommy but let's not kid ourselves. So I will begrudgingly go with Shailene Woodley, who is said to have hired a big time Awards campaigner to nab herself a nomination. But is Oscar going to bite on a schmaltzy teen drama? (answer: maybe. Maybe not. But the field is so dismal you may very well go with her, seeing as she had good reviews, her film was a hit and she's a young star of a franchise.)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Josh Brolin, Inherent Vice
Ethan Hawke, Boyhood
Miyavi, Unbroken
Edward Norton, Birdman
J.K. Simmons, Whiplash

Best Supporting Actor is definitely not an area of which I am adept. But seeing as every site I follow pertaining to either awards or film have screamed praises about Simmons and how evil he is in this film, let's all just assume that Simmons is going to sweep Javier Bardem/Heath Ledger/Christoph Waltz in Inglourious Basterds style. Going along for the ride are Norton and Hawke, who I can see picking up a critics award here and there. I hear Brolin is excellent in Inherent Vice so why not, and I opted for Miyavi because he's campaigning pretty hard already and I hear he's evil as well so...why not? There's also Robert Duvall in The Judge, Mark Ruffalo in Foxcatcher, and Tom Wilkinson in Selma.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Patricia Arquette, Boyhood
Jessica Chastain, A Most Violent Year
Keira Knightley, The Imitation Game
Emma Stone, Birdman
Meryl Streep, Into the Woods

Arquette is looking like the favorite to win it all, Knightley is looking like she'll slide on in a la Helena Bonham Carter in The King's Speech, and Streep has a good shot at nabbing her 19th(!!!) nomination because she's God Meryl Streep and she's singing Stephen Sondheim (and from the trailer--singing it quite well!) That leaves two spots left, and I'm opting to go with Chastain for A Most Violent Year (forget the whole fuss about her being forced to only talk about Interstellar until December, I have a feeling A Most Violent Year's timing will work to its benefit) and Emma Stone for Birdman because I imagine that AMPAS will take be crazy for it. But the field itself is looking nice and tight, with Laura Dern in Wild, Kristen Stewart in Still Alice, Katherine Waterston in Inherent Vice, and Carmen Ejojo in Selma in the wings ready to get in on the action.

Phew! So there's that. Feel free to let me know who you think is getting the nomination and who's getting the win :D

5 comments:

  1. Oooh, great read.

    Let's support Moore win <3

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    1. My heart has been rooting for Moore ever since I read the strong Still Alice reviews :D I just love her, and I'm excited to see her sweep!

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  2. We all have the same Best Actor now, also Supporting Actress. :)

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  3. I'd be on board with these nominations. I'm just hoping Chastain gets in for something, she's had such a killer year. I do think Ruffalo will sneak in for Supporting Actor, but it's a damn tough race.

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    1. I love Chastain, she's one of my favorite working actresses! It would be pretty unfortunate for her to have such an inspired batch of films come out this year and not get in for any one of them. Honestly, I know nothing about Best Supporting Actor and am just spewing out random thoughts, so it may very well happen for Ruffalo. He's had a great year as well so I wouldn't mind seeing him nom'd.

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